uLead Education Staffing Forecaster for Schools
Plan Ahead with Confidence in a Complex Staffing Environment
School staffing in New Zealand is centrally managed by the Ministry of Education, with schools allocated Full-Time Teacher Equivalents (FTTEs) based primarily on student roll numbers. Entitlements are adjusted annually and influenced by a range of additional factors, including learning support (ORS) and special circumstances.
At the same time, significant teacher shortages — particularly in primary schools — continue to impact the system nationally, making forward staffing decisions increasingly complex.
The uLead Education Staffing Forecaster, developed by Education Consultant Stephen Harrison, is designed to help schools make sense of this complexity by modelling how changes in roll numbers are likely to impact staffing entitlements across the year.
The Reality for School Leaders and Boards
Boards and leadership teams must:
Use FTTE allocations to determine staffing levels that balance budgets and student needs
Plan staffing use across the year to maintain flexibility
Anticipate potential roll growth and the staffing opportunities it may generate
Make informed decisions in an environment of national teacher shortages
Having a reliable forecasting tool supports proactive planning rather than reactive decision-making.
The uLead Education Staffing Forecaster
The Staffing Forecaster is a purpose-built Microsoft Excel workbook that allows schools to model likely changes to staffing entitlement based on roll growth scenarios.
This tool enables schools to explore “what if” scenarios and understand when staffing increases are likely to occur — supporting more confident curriculum, staffing, and budget planning.
What the Staffing Forecaster Does
Once roll data is entered, the workboot automatically generates estimates for:
Staffing Roll
Grading Roll
Principal’s Grade
Total Staffing Entitlement
Curriculum Entitlement
Management Entitlement (including Professional Leadership)
Special Education Staffing Entitlement
Classroom Release Time Entitlement
Permanent Unit Holder Release Entitlement
Beginning Teacher Time (PRT) Allowance
Unit Entitlement
The spreadsheet allows roll data to be entered for up to eight different periods, enabling schools to forecast staffing entitlement changes across the year, including roll-generated staffing.
Supporting Staffing Increase Applications
School boards may apply for a staffing increase from the time the confirmed roll is published in April until the last Friday of November each year.
The Staffing Forecaster helps schools assess when they may meet the required conditions to apply:
The permanent daily roll has increased and remained at this level for five school days (An increase may be approved sooner by the manager of your regional office or the manager of Operational Resourcing and Funding)
The new staffing roll generates additional entitlement staffing above the current entitlement
Important Disclaimer
This workbook does not guarantee staffing entitlement. It is intended as a planning and forecasting tool only, providing an indication of when staffing increases are likely to occur based on roll changes.
The calculator estimates staffing using the roll data you enter
It does not represent or guarantee actual staffing entitlement
Due to the complexity of school staffing, the model may not work perfectly for all schools
Schools are strongly encouraged to test the workbook by entering the information from their latest Provisional or Confirmed Staffing Entitlement Notice and checking whether the outputs align.
Resources
Personalised Support from uLead Education
Every school context is different. Stephen Harrison and uLead Education can work alongside your board and leadership team to:
Personalise the Staffing Forecaster for your school
Validate assumptions using your roll and entitlement data
Support confident, evidence-informed staffing decisions